A look at The Ethical Implications of AI on both White Collar and Blue Collar Jobs. In this part of the Series we will look at if AI will Replace – Lawyers or Truck Drivers?
The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not just a technological marvel but a pivotal force reshaping job landscapes across various industries. This transformation, both awe-inspiring and daunting, raises critical ethical questions, especially in the legal and transportation professions which are at two ends of the professional spectrum. As AIworkforce delves into this topic, we aim to provide thought-provoking insights into the profound impact and ethical considerations AI is set to have on these sectors and others.
The Transformative Impact of AI on the Legal Profession
Let’s start by looking at the legal profession, long revered for its reliance on human intellect and judgment. It is now however at a crossroads with the advent of AI. ChatGPT’s recent accomplishment of passing the Bar Exam symbolizes a turning point. AI’s burgeoning capabilities in legal research, case analysis, and document drafting herald a future where a significant portion of legal work could be automated and will be accomplished by AI. By 2030, we projected that 50% of legal professionals could be replaced by AI, with this figure rising to 80% by 2035. According to the American Bar Association’s 2020 ABA Profile of the Legal Profession, there are currently about 1.3 million lawyers in the US.
The structure of law, built on precedents and extensive documentation, presents an ideal landscape ripe for lawyers and law firms that move rapidly to take advantage of AI. Based on our estimate that represents 20% of firms and lawyers. For those 1 million lawyers and 80% of firms that don’t move quickly to augment their work with AI, the future impacts will be catastrophic.
The question for the American Bar Association, industry leaders and even governments will be how to support the legal industry, and more specifically the lawyers and employees that work in this industry, as it transitions to an AI driven industry that will require substantially fewer lawyers. This is the question that raises ethical concerns.
The Revolution in Trucking: The Advent of Autonomous Vehicles
Let’s now shift to the other end of the professional spectrum – the trucking industry. A critical component of the global economy, the trucking industry faces a similar disruptive wave with the introduction of autonomous vehicles. In America alone, there are 1.8 million long-haul truck drivers, with an average age nearing 50 and an average salary of over $80,000. The advancement in self-driving technology, already in deployment and rapidly improving, promises a safer alternative to human drivers. Economic incentives are poised to drive a swift transition to autonomous trucks for every long-haul trucking company in America. We believe that within 36 months of regulatory approval, over 50% of trucks could be retrofitted for self-driving, and by 2035, this number could reach 80%, resulting in massive impacts to the workforce requirement of the industry. More than 1 million truck drivers could lose their job and livelihood over the next 10 years.
Societal Response to Rapid Technological Change
The ethical dilemma intensifies when considering the societal impact of such rapid technological change. What becomes of the long-haul truck drivers, many of whom are at an age where retraining for new careers is challenging? The replacement of human jobs by AI at such a scale and pace could lead to significant social unrest, protests, or even a deeper societal crisis. Understanding that truck drivers and lawyers have families, they own homes, they have mortgages and auto loans, the trickle effect on these rapid shifts in jobs could be devastating if plans for this inevitability are not developed. And when I say “plans” I mean realistic, not overly optimistic plans that ensure that individuals who work in these and other industries that will be impacted will be provided a pathway to an alternative profession and income. The question we must be focused on is – How society responds to the displacement of millions of workers due to AI and what moral or ethical obligation do we have as a society to address this as well move to a world driven by AI in almost everything we do.
Regulation and Global Competition
Ultimately, the rapid deployment of AI in professions poses a significant challenge for regulatory bodies. The ethical quandary of slowing AI development to preserve jobs must be weighed against the competitive disadvantage this may cause on a global stage. Countries like Mexico or China, which might regulate AI less stringent, could gain a substantial edge in efficiency and cost-saving, leading to a potential imbalance in the global market. This raises a crucial question: how can regulation be balanced to protect jobs while not stifling innovation that could place a country’s entire industry at risk of falling behind?
Preparing for the AI Transition
Addressing the inevitable impact of AI requires more than just awareness; it calls for strategic action. Individuals in at-risk professions need to be educated about the impending changes. This knowledge is not meant to incite fear but to prepare them for a transition, potentially into roles where AI acts as an augmentative tool rather than a replacement. Organizations, on the other hand, should strategize to leverage AI for their benefit, transforming potential risks into opportunities. Governments and educational institutions play a critical role in facilitating this transition through policies, training programs, and incentives.
Conclusion
The ethical implications of AI replacing human jobs are profound and multifaceted. As we stand on the brink of this AI-driven era, it is not a question of if but when these changes will occur. The focus, therefore, should shift from resistance to preparation and adaptation. While the displacement of jobs presents a significant challenge, it also opens doors to new opportunities and necessitates a reevaluation of the role and value of human work in an AI-dominated future.
The forthcoming series by AIworkforce will continue to explore the impact of AI across various professions, including architects and software developers, providing insights and guidance for those poised to navigate this transformative era. As we delve into these topics, our goal is to provoke thought and encourage a proactive stance towards the inevitable integration of AI in our professional and personal lives.
